Date of Submission

5-2026

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy in Criminal Justice (Ph.D.)

Department

Criminal Justice

Advisor

David L. Myers, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Maria Tcherni-Buzzeo, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Kevin Barnes-Ceeney, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Brooke Weinger Kammrath, Ph.D., ABC-GKE

LC Subject Headings

Arrest, COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020-2023, Detention of persons, Criminal records, Criminal statistics

Abstract

This study examined the predictors of pretrial detention, its effects on case outcomes, and the determinants of pretrial failure in the federal criminal justice system, with particular attention given to changes associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Using administrative data from a federal district court in Connecticut, the study leveraged the pandemic as a natural experiment to assess shifts in pretrial practices and their consequences. The study addressed four primary research areas: (1) factors predicting pretrial detention, (2) factors predicting case outcomes, (3) the effect of pretrial detention (measured as release at any time, immediate release, and detention length) on case outcomes, and (4) factors predicting pretrial failure among released defendants. The analytic strategy included descriptive statistics, bivariate analyses, and multivariate regression models, including logistic and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. Results indicated that legally relevant factors, particularly offense severity and criminal history, were the strongest predictors of pretrial detention. Pretrial detention was significantly associated with less favorable case outcomes, including a higher likelihood of incarceration and longer sentence length. In addition, the COVID-19 period was associated with an increased likelihood of pretrial release but did not independently affect case outcomes once pretrial detention was considered. Finally, the results pointed to the importance of age and substance use as key predictors of pretrial failure among released defendants. Policy implications and recommendations for future research are discussed.

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