Date of Submission

5-13-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Department

Political Science

Advisor

Matthew Schmidt, Ph.D.

Keywords

Brazil’s Leadership, Global South, Middle Power, National Power, Regional Leadership, Domestic Factors

LCSH

Developing countries, Brazil--Foreign relations, Brazil--Economic conditions, Brazil--Politics and government--2003-

Abstract

Brazil possesses the material resources, territorial size, and regional influence typically associated with global powers, yet remains excluded from recognition as one. This thesis examines how Brazil's leadership of the Global South has shaped and at times constrained its ambition to become more than a middle power. Using Wang and Chen's comprehensive national power measurements, it tracks Brazil's dramatic trajectory: a 72% increase in national power between 2005 and 2010, followed by a 43% decline by 2020. To explain this reversal, the thesis develops a delta framework identifying six key impediments: regional leadership failure, recognition deficit, military limitations, political instability, economic stagnation, and Global South leadership. The central finding is that Global South leadership partially constrained Brazil's rise, but domestic factors mattered far more. Brazil's decline was not caused by its international strategy but by compound domestic failures that no strategy could overcome. The thesis concludes that while comprehensive great power status remains unlikely in the near term, modest recovery is possible, but only if Brazil addresses the domestic foundations that determine whether its potential is finally converted into performance.

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